While an AIADMK alliance landslide victory (220-24 seat ) is still a possibility, the probability of such an outcome unfortunately appears to have somewhat receded if we were to go by the tone of the media, who these days prefer to sit on the fence.
However a section of the media now wants us to buy their second best case scenario - AIADMK pulling off a simple win. What all this means is that Jayalaithaa is poised to return to the the CM's Chair and the AIADMK alliance pulling off a wafer-thin majority. Such a prospect would no doubt be celebrated as a huge media orgy, with sections claiming that such a win struck a decisive blow for the fight against corruption.
But a simple majority means that the AIADMK as a single party could end up with around 80-90 seats at the most. This would mean that Jayalaithaa still needs ally support of some 20-30 seats for a majority. The Left can at best provide her 6-8 seats, Vijaykant around 8-12 seats and her other allies around 3-7.
The DMK alliance within this scenario though the loser is still expected to command around 100-110 seats - the DMK alone around is likely to be around 70-75 seats; the Congress around 20-25 seats; the PMK 10-14 other allies 2-3seats.
If this scenario plays out on April 13th, we have all elements of political pot boiler in the making. Being autocratic by nature, Jayalaithaa is not the kind of person who is fit for collectivist governance. She apparently projected her fears of heading a coalition regime by claiming that the Tamil Nadu people will not accept any coalition government. But under this scenario, this ironically would be exactly what the Tamil Nadu people gives her as a mandate - a coalition government!
The DMK alliance within this scenario though the loser is still expected to command around 100-110 seats - the DMK alone around is likely to be around 70-75 seats; the Congress around 20-25 seats; the PMK 10-14 other allies 2-3seats.
If this scenario plays out on April 13th, we have all elements of political pot boiler in the making. Being autocratic by nature, Jayalaithaa is not the kind of person who is fit for collectivist governance. She apparently projected her fears of heading a coalition regime by claiming that the Tamil Nadu people will not accept any coalition government. But under this scenario, this ironically would be exactly what the Tamil Nadu people gives her as a mandate - a coalition government!
While Vijaykant accepts Jayalaithaa's claim to Chief Ministership, he has yet said nothing about the post of Deputy Chief Minister - a position he may just demand for since it is highly unlikely that his oversized ego permits him to be counted as one among the many in the council of ministers headed by Jayalaithaa - his contemporary actress. Assuming Jayalaithaa concedes to this demand, she may need to wear a crash helmet for cabinet meetings, given that Vijaykant suffers from intermittent explosive disorder (IED). For those perplexed on the meaning of IED it is best explained by the frame capturing Vijaykant hammering his party worker.
We have to excuse him for this dismeanor as we were told he was under the influence of alcohol. So Tamil Nadu could record another first - getting an alcoholic IED patient as deputy chief minister. Jayalaithaa can of course give conditional acceptance to his demand through sealing a quid pro qo arrangement - attend anger management and anti-alcohol therapies and occupy the chair of Deputy CM seat. But considering he is an IED, would she risk making this proposal? Prehaps not. So we can assume Jayalaithaa's better senses will prevail in keeping out of reach of Vijaykant.
Things can get really more complicated if Vijaykant in an "accommodative spirit" rules himself out of the government in exchange for his MLAs occupying all key portofolios - finance; home; revenue, mining etc - impossible demands that can be met by Jayalaithaa. So it is increasingly looking that if the AIADMK wins a simple majority, the DMDK will certainly be not part of government, perhaps why Vijaykant refused to share the stage with Jayalaithaa during the campaign. If he offers outside support, he will target Jayalaithaa to be a puppet. so much so, it is best for Jayalaithaa to replace DMDK post poll.
So where can Jayalaithaa offset the DMDK's numbers? The media speculates the Congress as her number one candidate. But such an exercise of option will immediately anger the Left who will go back co-habiting with her rival. And without the Left's moderating influence, Jayalaithaa would certainly botch up coalition functioning. On the flip side, the Congress makes up the numbers for the loss of both DMDK and the Left. But the moot question is whether the Congress will actually take the bait as such a radical step will throw back at the stability of the UPA government at the centre. From the Congress perspective, the DMK is a lesser evil. The DMK maybe corrupt but they are preferable as an ally as they more predictible and reasonable than Jayalaithaa is. Moreover, a weakened DMK but with a larger number of MPs than the AIADMK perfectly suit the Congress at the centre.
So with Congress pre-closing itself as an option, where else could Jayalaithaa look. She can eye the PMK as they could offset her prospective loss of the DMDK. The Left would have no objection to PMK is an extra plus. So rather than the Congress, it could well be the PMK that could post-poll don the role of kingmaker. But like Vaiko, the PMK was humiliated by Jayalaithaa. So they too are likely to ask for their pound of flesh. This drama could be tad less interesting to watch compared to Jayalaithaa's tango with Vijaykant but in a state craving for entertainment, this could be easily lapped up by the masses with the masala thrown in by the media.
While the PMK may not suffer from any moral turpitude in crossing over to the AIADMK side, what could stop them is their image as a "political prostitute" in the state - willing to bed anyone who gives them more seats and loaves of office. This has already taken a huge toll on their popularity in the state. Defection at this stage would be equivalent to comitting long term hara kiri. Besides, what could induce them to stay on within the DMK pack is that with an unstable government, elections will be around sooner than little.
Then again, expecting a mid-term poll may be an illusion as Jayalaithaa can take inspiration from BJP's Karnataka governance model and engineer defections to happily survive five years. Who knows that while Vijaykant succeeds in a record haul of seats, Jayalaithaa may cut him to size by engineering mass defection of his MLAs into the AIADMK. Or will it be the PMK her target? Will the Congress be in her list too? Who knows what the hunger to cling on to power will take shape?
No wonder this scenario of AIADMK alliance getting a simple majority is passionately marketed by the media. They are projecting their hopes. If it materialises, there would be hardly a dull day of reporting with Jayalaithaa in government!
Who benefits? There is no need to second guess.
Things can get really more complicated if Vijaykant in an "accommodative spirit" rules himself out of the government in exchange for his MLAs occupying all key portofolios - finance; home; revenue, mining etc - impossible demands that can be met by Jayalaithaa. So it is increasingly looking that if the AIADMK wins a simple majority, the DMDK will certainly be not part of government, perhaps why Vijaykant refused to share the stage with Jayalaithaa during the campaign. If he offers outside support, he will target Jayalaithaa to be a puppet. so much so, it is best for Jayalaithaa to replace DMDK post poll.
So where can Jayalaithaa offset the DMDK's numbers? The media speculates the Congress as her number one candidate. But such an exercise of option will immediately anger the Left who will go back co-habiting with her rival. And without the Left's moderating influence, Jayalaithaa would certainly botch up coalition functioning. On the flip side, the Congress makes up the numbers for the loss of both DMDK and the Left. But the moot question is whether the Congress will actually take the bait as such a radical step will throw back at the stability of the UPA government at the centre. From the Congress perspective, the DMK is a lesser evil. The DMK maybe corrupt but they are preferable as an ally as they more predictible and reasonable than Jayalaithaa is. Moreover, a weakened DMK but with a larger number of MPs than the AIADMK perfectly suit the Congress at the centre.
So with Congress pre-closing itself as an option, where else could Jayalaithaa look. She can eye the PMK as they could offset her prospective loss of the DMDK. The Left would have no objection to PMK is an extra plus. So rather than the Congress, it could well be the PMK that could post-poll don the role of kingmaker. But like Vaiko, the PMK was humiliated by Jayalaithaa. So they too are likely to ask for their pound of flesh. This drama could be tad less interesting to watch compared to Jayalaithaa's tango with Vijaykant but in a state craving for entertainment, this could be easily lapped up by the masses with the masala thrown in by the media.
While the PMK may not suffer from any moral turpitude in crossing over to the AIADMK side, what could stop them is their image as a "political prostitute" in the state - willing to bed anyone who gives them more seats and loaves of office. This has already taken a huge toll on their popularity in the state. Defection at this stage would be equivalent to comitting long term hara kiri. Besides, what could induce them to stay on within the DMK pack is that with an unstable government, elections will be around sooner than little.
Then again, expecting a mid-term poll may be an illusion as Jayalaithaa can take inspiration from BJP's Karnataka governance model and engineer defections to happily survive five years. Who knows that while Vijaykant succeeds in a record haul of seats, Jayalaithaa may cut him to size by engineering mass defection of his MLAs into the AIADMK. Or will it be the PMK her target? Will the Congress be in her list too? Who knows what the hunger to cling on to power will take shape?
No wonder this scenario of AIADMK alliance getting a simple majority is passionately marketed by the media. They are projecting their hopes. If it materialises, there would be hardly a dull day of reporting with Jayalaithaa in government!
Who benefits? There is no need to second guess.
AIADMK win confirmed by Savukku Sankar in savukku dot net. He is always correct and gives with proof from IB centre and State with contacts.
ReplyDeleteAlready planning for administration improvement where each citizen can send their idea for improving administration
AIADMK win 100 percent sure and next cm also Jayalalithaa
http://www.savukku.net/home/726-2011-04-18-02-20-57.html
If it is possible and probable, then the question is how comprehensive will be her win?
ReplyDeleteIf she sweeps, it is a different matter. The post is in context if she scraps through - which is what most of the media is saying.
The DMK are better administrators are etched in their comparative statistics. Karunandhi may have a point when he says Jaya is a better talker!
Vijay Mallaya met the CM. When industrialists start bestowing courtesy visits, it may point that they believe DMK will continue to govern. They are also conduct private opinion and exit polls as their business hold huge stake in the outcome
ReplyDeleteI donot know how the people condone loot of national wealth by DMK at National and State levels and still support based on some assumptions.
ReplyDeleteKarunanidhi was indicted by Sarkaria and got pardoned
Jaya has fought 12 cases foisted by DMK and acquitted in 11.There is a vast difference
As for Vijay Mallaya he was in the same box as bangalore team were playing.Courtesy calls are always used by business men.
Unless there is a massive distribution of money as seen in Madurai west ,AIADMK should win hands down.
AIADMK minister have ruled less time than DMK so obviously latter may be better skilled in administration as well as scientific looting
Given the size of the electorate in Tamil Nadu, money can make at the most 0.2%. I agree, if there is a tidal wave in Jaya's favour, money becomes irrelevant. She would have despite it.
ReplyDelete